Friends,
I hope that all is well with you and yours.
I am going to keep this newsletter short and sweet; with Christmas around the corner, many of us are far too busy with far more important matters than reading the incoherent ramblings of a bearded man from the lands of ice and snow.
Either way, my uncensored thoughts on the year that has come and gone will be arriving in your inbox a week from now (after which we will begin discussing superforecasting). Today, as is tradition, I will provide my annual book recommendations for those looking for very late gift ideas or, perhaps more realistically, something to read during the holidays.
Two to start the show
We begin with Jane Jacobs’ The Nature of Economies and Benoit Mandelbrot’s The (Mis)Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward.
Jacobs’ central idea, which we will find reason to come back to later this winter (her book deserves its own newsletter), is that economies can be compared to ecologies. This, some may remember, echoes the works of other thinkers such as Stuart Kauffman, Brian Arthur, Eric Beinhocker, and, to the degree that one might say such a thing without coming across as a total twig, myself.
The Nature of Economies is brief but brilliant, written in a form of didactic dialogue (akin to that found in Douglas Hofstadter's magnus opus Gödel, Escher, Bach; An Eternal Golden Braid). While this may sound unusual - and it is at least uncommon - it works exceedingly well in not merely putting forth the argument in a simple and succinct manner, but also rebuking counterarguments in a very natural way.
Next, we have one of those books the merits of which I often find myself having to convince others. I do not mean in terms of the quality of its author (it would be a rather tall task to argue against Mandelbrot’s genius), but a book on market models written by a mathematician apparently sounds so dull that most reflexively ignore it on its basic premise alone. To put it mildly, this is a monumental mistake.
Against the backdrop of the events of 2008 and what is currently happening in the world, Mandelbrot’s 2004 must-read is scarily on point. To illustrate:
Markets are much riskier than most people or most financial professionals realize.
Modern financial theory rests on weak foundations.
This implies a severe vulnerability in the global financial system.
Technical market “patterns” are meaningless fantasies.
What makes The (Mis)Behavior of Markets so good is that, while technical, it is immensely accessible. This means that it manages to introduce concepts that on their own might be difficult to understand (e.g., advanced valuation models or fractality theory), but in the flow of the book make immediate sense.
Something completely different
Moving on, we have something completely different: Josephine Tey’s masterpiece The Daughter of Time.
Often listed among the best crime novels of all time, the book features (as several of her other books also do) Scotland Yard inspector Alan Grant. Finding himself bored to tears in a hospital, bedridden with a broken leg but without much of anything to do except stare at the ceiling, Grant begins to research historical mysteries. In particular, he becomes intrigued by a portrait of Richard III.
What follows is a brilliant tale of critical thinking, the security we find in consensus, the power of propaganda, and how truth truly is the daughter of time. If you want a book to escape into in front of a fireplace, perhaps with tasty beverage of choice, I cannot recommend Tey’s classic highly enough.
Unread gems
Last on our list are two books that I have yet to read myself - but bear with me, my recommendations will make sense, I promise.
Firstly, there is Better Brand Health: Measures and Metrics for a How Brands Grow World by Jenni Romaniuk. Launching in February 2023, I have yet to get my hands on the latest book from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute. However, it is looking to be a must-read.
From my experience, many (if not most) marketers struggle with the practical application of the principles put forth in How Brands Grow. Help, it would appear, is on the way; Romaniuk promises to provide insight into brand tracker setup, attribute wording, mental availability measurements, and much more. A potential future staple read.
And then, we come to our Gary Forss Recommendation of the Year. Gary is a dear friend, certainly, but also without question one of the smartest and most insightful people I know. Consequently, when he raves about a book, one pays attention.
On top of his list this year was The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by Davids Graeber and Wengrow.
The core argument of the work is that the popular views on progress, particularly as they pertain to Western civilization, fundamentally lack anthropological and archaeological support. Rather than a linear development from primitivism to civilization, the authors argue that evidence suggests that humans lived in large, complex, but decentralized polities for millennia.
Although I know of Wengrow only by name, I have found Graeber to be consistently thought-provoking. Thus, I expect a dense, challenging, but ultimately thoroughly rewarding read.
Merry Christmas, one and all!
And there we have it. My book recommendations for the year.
Next week, we will take a look back at a 2022 that will go down in history as one of the more challenging years in a long time. Hold onto your hats.
Until then, have the loveliest of holidays.
Onwards and upwards,
JP
Thanks for the recommendations JP. Several have been immediately placed on the last minute Christmas wishlist to the "delight" of my wife.
Thanks for the recommendations: all look great!