The one by Christopher Bramley
From case to context
Friends,
I hope that all is well with you and yours, and that this e-mail finds you on a boat with shoddy connection, in the tropics, three months after I sent it.
In today’s guest columnist newsletter, Christopher Bramley provides an essay about decision-making and leadership, including poignant points about the pitfalls of personal success, the danger of replacing trust in yourself with trust in software, and how to embrace emotion correctly.
Now accepting keynotes for 24Q4-25Q2
Every year for the last decade or so, I have created three main presentation decks. For 2025, however, I have (for the first time) added a fourth due to popular demand. They are:
What to Do When You Don’t Know What to Do: How to turn change into a competitive advantage. (Based on the new book by the same name.)
Leadership in a Time of Change: How to steer an organization through a sea of uncertainty. (Executive audiences only.)
Resilient Retail: How to build a profitable retail business in the modern marketplace. (Based on the 2025 follow-up to the highly praised 2022 white paper The Gravity of e-Commerce.)
Artificial Intelligence Beyond the Hype: How to understand the narratives, risks, opportunities, and best uses of a new technology.
If you want to book me for your event, corporate speaking slot, or workshop, merely send me an email. To make sure I am available, please do so at your earliest convenience; my availability is limited and the schedule tends to fill up fast. More information may be found here.
A couple of updates before we go-go
Now that things have (kind of) calmed down at home - Child #2 is settling into a routine of sorts - I have started to do keynote work again, kicking off with a few executive sessions on leadership, decision-making, and strategic adaptability. 2025, meanwhile, is already starting to fill up. If you need me for your conference, corporate session, or workshop, you know where to find me.
Still waiting for an invite to a Japanese conference, though. Not saying, just saying…
Ahem. Where was I?
From one thing to something completely different, I recently saw the online Linkin Park event at which they introduced their new singer. Obviously, Emily Armstrong is insanely talented (I mean, just listen to her voice), and the song is very cleverly written and performed to set her up for success, but more than that, the way she handled what unquestionably must have been an incredible amount of pressure was nothing short of extraordinary.
I hate the kind of content that follows the “what X can learn from Y” formula, but I would bet my house that she could teach a lot of executives in high-stakes scenarios a thing or two.
JP Morgan recently announced that they were capping junior investment bankers’ hours at 80 a week “in most cases” - still the equivalent of eleven and half hours a day, seven days a week, without breaking for lunch. Bank of America, meanwhile, said they were implementing a new piece of software that will “require more detail about how junior bankers’ time is spent” after an external investigation found that BoA juniors were routinely instructed to lie about their hours to “avoid exceeding limits”.
I am familiar with these kinds of hours from my days at a business law firm; at times, my average was 94 hours a week. Big firm financial advisors that I worked with were doing about the same. I know at least a couple of people died as a result (none at my firm, to be clear, though our average length of employment was about six months; people would just burn out). To be blunt, it is fucking crazy.
It is easy, as a young person, to think that these kinds of gigs will only last for a few years; you do the time and then move on. I certainly did. But few are able to stick around in the first place, not only because of the mental and physical toll, but also because of the sacrifices required (including your social life, love life, and family life). If you manage to pull it off, getting out is a lot easier said than done. Over time, the work becomes your identity. Your coworkers, who like you have given up almost everything to be there, become your new friends. Leaving work thus means losing yourself with no friends to talk to (your former colleagues will not have time to socialize outside of work). So people become trapped.
Anyway. Moving on.
JP’s note: the guest writer du jour, Christopher Bramley, is a man of many talents. Not only is he one of the top experts on Cynefin around and a published author of books of both fiction and non-fiction, but he is also a champion of neurodiverse inclusion and mental health. Chris himself is atypically autistic. We met online some five or so years ago when I first began to dabble with Dave Snowden’s work, and to say that he accelerated my learning would be to put it very mildly indeed. Today, he has kindly provided us with an essay on decision-making, so grab a cup of your favorite coffee, sit down in your favorite chair, and enjoy.
From case to context
On the crucial role of humanity in decision-making
Think back to the last business decision you made. Did you base it on previous decisions or experience? Or how you felt? Was it based entirely on data? Did you feel that you could change the outcome once you’d committed to it?
I would wager that there may have been a combination of elements which you didn’t consciously consider at play, but consciously there was probably an urge to be professional, divorce yourself from emotion and make an informed decision, perhaps based on experience, perhaps with a drive to make it quickly and decisively. Unfortunately, this means that you may not have made a very human – or accurate – decision. Removing emotion from business is impossible; much of what drives leadership decision-making in traditional senses isn’t achievement and outcomes, but fear or focused incentive.
It’s hard to find our way through the modern vortex of Fad, FOMO, and FUD. An entire industry of traveling leadership “hero” teams and consultancies have been built around supporting it. This can make it very hard for leaders to use the right language in the right way, and make optimal decisions, or for others to feel they are empowered to do so.
To understand the matter better, let’s explore a few key aspects: